Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, finance and planning adviser to the prime minister, speaks at a seminar, titled “Peer Review of Forensic Audit Report on GDP Estimates”, organised by the Ministry of Planning, at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) headquarters in Agargaon, Dhaka today. Ministry of Planning
 
Bangladesh’s GDP growth data were overstated by 0.7 to 1.30 percentage points since fiscal year (FY) 2014-15, according to a forensic audit by a panel formed by the planning ministry.
 
The manipulation was intended to serve political interests and promote a development narrative. It is evident in several sectors, particularly those where reliable primary data were unavailable and GDP estimates relied on administrative or secondary sources, said Rashed Al Mahmud Titumir, finance and planning adviser to the prime minister.
 
He made the comment at a seminar, titled “Peer Review of Forensic Audit Report on GDP Estimates”, organised by the Ministry of Planning, at the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) headquarters in Agargaon, Dhaka today.
 
“Since 2014-15, we have observed a pattern of inconsistencies in the national accounts,” he said.
 
AK Enamul Haque, director general of the Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS) and a member of the audit committee, unveiled the findings at the event.
 
The audit identified seven areas of overestimation, mainly involving manufacturing and tax data.
 
Researchers examined 22 industrial subsectors and found that the discrepancies largely involved secondary and administrative data rather than figures collected directly through BBS surveys.
 
Citing cement production, Titumir said reported output did not match the corresponding value addition reflected in GDP.
 
“If cement production is reported at a particular level, the corresponding value addition reflected in GDP must be consistent with the data of related sectors. But those figures did not match,” he said.
 
Similar inconsistencies were found in petroleum and other sectors, where figures were substantially inflated in some instances and subsequently reduced.
 
The readymade garment sector was not affected, as reliable data were available, he said.
 
The audit also found inconsistencies in revenue and export statistics.
 
Titumir pointed to discrepancies among export figures reported by the Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), Customs and Bangladesh Bank.
 
He also said National Board of Revenue (NBR) data had shown inconsistencies before the introduction of the Integrated Budget and Accounting System (iBAS).
 
The government has decided to treat Bangladesh Bank’s export figures as authoritative and has already taken steps to address the discrepancies, he said.
 
Titumir said the audit followed a scientific research process, including peer reviews by economists, statisticians and researchers, to restore confidence in official statistics, whose credibility has been questioned by international organisations.