—Audite Karim—

Following the 22 April attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir — where 26 innocent tourists were killed — India’s launch of “Operation Sindoor” seemed inevitable. With those tragic deaths, tensions between India and Pakistan escalated to a boiling point, culminating on Tuesday night when India launched missile strikes on nine targets inside Pakistani territory. This marked the beginning of an undeclared war, sending shockwaves not only across the subcontinent but throughout the international community. The UN Secretary-General and the US President have since begun urgent diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the situation.

India’s military operation has now rendered the region unstable, and it raises pressing questions about how safe Bangladesh truly is in this scenario. Bangladesh now finds itself strategically vulnerable on multiple fronts — not just because of the India-Pakistan conflict, but also due to spillover effects from the long-standing civil war between the Myanmar military and the Arakan Army. Dhaka has already decided to establish a “humanitarian corridor” for displaced Rakhine people — a decision that could impact its diplomatic relations with the junta-led Myanmar government.

On Tuesday, the National Security Adviser stated, “We will speak to whoever is across the border,” and “We will meet with whomever we wish.” These remarks suggest a possible line of communication with the Arakan Army — a move reportedly encouraged by Western powers. If Bangladesh formally engages with a separatist group, however, it risks being labelled as a hostile neighbour by Myanmar, who has already warned that such actions would severely damage bilateral relations. Despite the adviser’s claim that the Myanmar government has no control over the Rakhine region, engaging with a non-state actor — especially one labelled as a terrorist group by its own state — could be diplomatically reckless, especially for a non-elected caretaker government.

Let us not forget the recent warning issued by Bangladesh’s Army Chief, General Waqar-uz-Zaman, who cautioned, “If we are not united, our independence could be in jeopardy.” His words ring even more true today. Given the heightened military tensions in the subcontinent, Bangladesh finds itself in a precarious and double-edged situation.

Firstly, although Bangladesh may try to remain neutral in a potential India-Pakistan war, it is almost certain that efforts will be made to draw Dhaka into the conflict. Particularly after the geopolitical shift of 5 August, relations between Dhaka and Delhi have experienced visible strain. Historically, India accused Bangladesh of harbouring separatist groups who launched attacks on Indian soil. This sentiment faded after 2008 when Dhaka actively clamped down on such elements. However, since the August policy shift and amid growing anti-Bangladesh rhetoric in Indian media, New Delhi now perceives a resurgence of radicalism in Bangladesh and frowns upon the recent diplomatic engagements between Dhaka and Islamabad — including a visit from Pakistan’s foreign secretary and a cancelled visit from its foreign minister.

There is now growing concern that Pakistan may use Bangladesh’s territory for strategic leverage or even to support separatist movements — real or alleged. Regardless of the truth, India will keep a sharp eye on developments in Bangladesh, especially around the geopolitically crucial Bay of Bengal, which is increasingly a hotspot of international interest and rivalry.

Simultaneously, Bangladesh is navigating tense relations with Myanmar. The proposed humanitarian corridor for Rakhine people risks being interpreted by Myanmar as direct support for the Arakan Army — a group it brands as a terrorist separatist organisation. But if Bangladesh refuses the corridor, it risks alienating Western powers like the US and China, whose support is vital for an unelected interim government. Thus, Dhaka is caught in a diplomatic double bind. Any corridor, once operational, could become a flashpoint for direct military aggression from Myanmar. If that happens, the threat won’t just be confined to Cox’s Bazar but could endanger the entire nation.

The subcontinent’s turmoil is spilling over into Bangladesh, a country already under immense pressure. In today’s interconnected world, no country is immune from global disturbances. We’ve seen this with COVID-19 and the Russia-Ukraine war. Bangladesh, too, will feel the heat of the India-Pakistan conflict.

To navigate these turbulent waters, Bangladesh must act with wisdom and strategy. As the Army Chief rightly said, unity is essential. In such high-stakes scenarios, national cohesion is non-negotiable. Divisiveness, political grandstanding, or irresponsible rhetoric could endanger the country’s stability.

The issue of the humanitarian corridor must be handled with extreme sensitivity. The caretaker government should immediately engage all political stakeholders in meaningful dialogue to build consensus. After all, this is a transitional government, not an elected one. While it may have assumed office with wide support, it lacks the democratic mandate to take long-term or high-risk decisions. Hence, political parties must work together in parliament to outline a roadmap for the nation.

In these times of grave uncertainty, Bangladesh must avoid provocation and act with caution. Our foreign policy mantra — “Friendship to all, malice towards none” — must be our guiding light. Only then can we emerge from this crisis with dignity and stability.

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Audite Karim is a playwright and columnist. Email: [email protected]