—Mahfuzur Rahman—

The coming days will bring significant challenges for Bangladesh. Following the July-August changes, Bangladesh has naturally adopted an anti-India stance. At the same time, due to the indifference of the previous government and the irresponsible behaviour of the current administration, political extremism has emerged in the country. As a result, whoever wins the next general election, the biggest challenge for the new government will be to restore tolerance in politics and gain the support and trust of the people in pursuing an independent and fruitful foreign policy. Neither of these seems to be easy. At least so far, none of the political parties seems to be prepared for such a step.

Just like world politics, there have been major changes in regional politics in the past year and a half. As a result, the new government will have to face both challenges. In addition, Bangladesh has suddenly become friendless in the international arena. If the government chooses the easy way to fill this void, it is more likely to boomerang. On the one hand, Bangladesh has shown interest in participating in the US-sponsored reconstruction phase of Gaza, and on the other hand, it has also paid attention to the Pakistan-Turkey Islamic axis.

The economy of Bangladesh is now quite stagnant. Many sectors that were active in the economy during the previous government are now absent from the market. This has resulted in capital being trapped or being smuggled out of the country. Potential investors do not seem to have any confidence in investing in the country. As a result, unemployment is increasing. Inflation is increasing. As the rate of imports increases against exports, the pressure on foreign exchange is increasing, signalling further near-future deterioration.

Foreign investors have not yet shown their interest, as the dynamics of the economy are not favourable. China’s investment interest in some of the projects may become embarrassing for the government. The innovative but obnoxious style that the United States is following in foreign policy in recent times may put undue pressure on Bangladesh. The country may also come under pressure if it cannot demonstrate enthusiasm for Chinese investment. It is unfortunate that Bangladesh’s relations with its two neighbours are at their lowest point. The hostility with both India and Myanmar is making Bangladesh friendless in the world. The new government will have to formulate its foreign policy in the face of such a terrible reality. The task is not easy at all. I think that the new government can make this difficult task easier by following a pragmatic policy.

WHAT CAN THE NEW GOVERNMENT DO?

The new government must improve relations with its two neighbours. No matter how difficult the task may be, first, Bangladesh must express its goodwill. Second, no action can be taken, no matter how small or large, that will further deteriorate relations. Third, the legacy of the previous government must be dealt with sensitivity. Fourth, the rest must be achieved gradually, depending on how much relations improve.

The main complication with Myanmar is trust. The Rohingya issue, like in Bangladesh, is sensitive for the Myanmar government as well, and at the same time, it is related to its security and national integrity. This crisis is old, but new elements are being added to it every moment. If we cannot achieve a relationship of trust with the Myanmar government, there is no possibility of any progress in resolving this crisis.

The nature of the hostility with India is more complex. In this case, the interim government has further complicated the relationship to a point where the new government will have to burn a lot of wood to normalise it. The new government must express that it will not be influenced by any behaviour of the previous governments. Secondly, it needs to be clear that India is not an enemy country, and the development of Bangladesh-India relations is beneficial for both countries. The new government should not do anything provocative in any way. The two countries must agree that no one in their respective countries, especially the media, will allow anything that will derail the relationship. The new government must take a clear decision on all the agreements signed with India during the tenure of the previous governments, public and private. If the new government feels uncomfortable with any agreement, it must inform India about it and resolve it through negotiations. Similarly, if India feels uncomfortable with any agreement, Bangladesh must also take it into account. The diplomatic posts of the two countries should be activated, and each other should be assisted to ensure the security of the posts. Discussions can be held on the extradition of the former prime minister and other fugitives who are facing cases in Bangladeshi courts, have arrest warrants, or have been sentenced in Bangladeshi courts. But rigidity will not help the cause.

The new government must ensure good governance, justice and inclusive politics within the country. Otherwise, it will be difficult to build the desired foreign policy. The new government can quickly pay a ministerial-level visit to South Asian countries, including India and Myanmar, to express its goodwill. Later, in the continuation of this visit, visits can also be made to other important countries outside South Asia.

The new government must clearly apprise all the countries with which Bangladesh has close relations about what it will do and what kind of government it will run. This will increase the confidence of the world community in the government.

The first days are very important for the new government. A country with a fragile economy, degraded social order and aimless foreign policy cannot create a good image in the world community. The new government must strive to build a better image of Bangladesh with awareness and care. We all need to understand that in the changing world, tolerance, accountability, fairness, openness, inclusiveness, responsibility and transparency label a smart country, and that wins everything. All countries see their own interests in foreign policy. This is natural. Bangladesh must increase the number of mutual allies and friends by seeking and protecting these interests. A friend who can stand by your side like a useful friend when needed.

————————————————

The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador