—DR RASHID ASKARI—

Dr. Rashid Askari, File Photo

Bangladesh Premier Sheikh Hasina paid two visits to India in June 2024 in the space of only 12 days. The two consecutive visits not only have great diplomatic value but also convey Bangladesh’s geopolitical strategy as they happen before Sheikh Hasina’s scheduled visit to China from 8 to 11 July 2024. It is not a matter of routine on the part of a head of government to visit a country on official tours twice in the same month. Several interesting implications arise from these events.

Political analysts tend to draw an analogy between these visits to India and China. It is part of Sheikh Hasina’s very personal diplomacy in striking a balance between the major players in the region. Though the detractors claim Hasina came back from India empty-handed, she hopes the visit will play a key role in strengthening strategic relations between the two countries.

Given the tangible results of the visit, as many as 10 Memoranda of Understandings (MoUs) were signed, and 13 specific declarations have emerged. Though issues like the Teesta Water Sharing Agreement and the renewal of the Ganges Water Sharing Agreement still leave us with some uncertainties, light is always there at the end of the tunnel. This calls for maintaining a strategic balance between these two Asian giants.

Sheikh Hasina’s critics are trying to cash in on the discordant views of the central and state governments of India about the water sharing of the Teesta. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared that he will send a technical team to Bangladesh to weigh up the pros and cons of the Teesta water sharing project. A positive assessment is likely to triumph over Mamata’s stubborn resistance to it.

But Sheikh Hasina, as a great stateswoman, is not the one to bank on a particular path to implementation of her plans. As the Teesta management project presents new challenges, she must look for newer means to face them. Both India and China have given proposals to build a mega project on the cross-border Teesta River. She will prudently evaluate both the proposals and opt for the more acceptable in terms of the interests of the people of Bangladesh.

She is also of the note that the Teesta River management mega project issue could be resolved in a better way if India handled it in the right earnest, because it is a river shared by these two countries. But if proper management of the river project is stuck due to the West Bengal chief minister’s hardline stance against it, the Bangladesh PM, for sure, will figure out a suitable alternative. As she receives proposals from both countries, she will take into consideration which proposal is more suitable for our country, whether Bangladesh has the capacity to repay loans, and how people will benefit from it.

India may not want China to be involved in such a major project near the Chicken’s Neck, its strategic Siliguri Corridor. And they will not also want that, due to Mamata’s hidebound attitude, China wins the project and makes inroads into India’s long-lasting relations with Bangladesh, leading to security crises in the Seven Sisters.

Relations between India and China are always strained. Both are holding sway over other countries in the South Asian region directly or indirectly. But Bangladesh is free of their grip. Bangladesh, under Sheikh Hasina’s strong leadership, is handling the geopolitical affairs quite independently and tactfully in the light of Bangabandhu’s foreign policy dictum. It amazes us to see how masterfully Sheikh Hasina is handling both China and India, who are equally aspirant for dominance in the region.

In the long-standing of economic, geopolitical and military confrontations, both China and India want Bangladesh to be on their respective sides and to have control over it. So, given the bigger scheme of the regional power play, Bangladesh is one of the most vital countries for both China and India, and its role can be seen as a catalyst for fashioning economic and political order in South Asia.

And hence, Sheikh Hasina needs to strike a balance regarding its ties with both India and China. She considers New Delhi very important for Dhaka, as they also shed blood for the independence of Bangladesh during the 1971 Liberation War. At the same time, she treats China as a country from which Bangladesh has many things to learn.

Her government maintains the relations considering all these aspects, and Sheikh Hasina never interferes with what relations the two countries should have between them. She also finds no problem with maintaining equal relations with India and China. She went to New Delhi, and now she is going to visit Beijing. According to analysts, Dhaka would continue to strike a balance in the relationship both with New Delhi and Beijing, as Bangladesh needs them both for its stability and development. Sheikh Hasina skilfully negotiates the opposing interests of India and China, as the problem is quite slippery.

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The writer is a former Vice Chancellor of Islamic University Bangladesh