TDS Desk:

July, the first month of the current fiscal year (FY26), indicates promises for rebounding economic activity, despite ongoing challenges.

The General Economics Division (GED) of the Planning Commission, in its latest monthly economic update, has projected cautious optimism for the country’s economic trajectory in the current fiscal year, highlighting both emerging positives and persistent structural challenges.

According to the GED’s assessment, the first month of fiscal year 2025-2026 shows early signs of economic rebound, although growth projections remain modest due to ongoing political issues, subdued investment and industrial activity, and global headwinds – including the recent imposition of reciprocal tariffs by the United States.

Multilateral institutions have revised their forecasts downward for the current fiscal. The World Bank projects growth between 3.3% and 4.1%, while the Asian Development Bank (ADB) estimates it at 3.9%. A moderate rebound to 5.1%-5.3% is anticipated in FY2026.

The GED said Bangladesh’s external sector reflects steady performance and sound policy management, while offering clear opportunities for structural improvements and export diversification.

Overall, the relatively steady level of capital machinery imports-aside from the October anomaly-suggests consistent, albeit moderate, investment momentum.

This trend, paired with variation in total imports, points to a diversified composition of import demand in Bangladesh’s external sector.

It also said that structural reforms and economic policy reorientation, focusing on innovation and stimulating investment, including FDI, are considered crucial for strengthening the economy and enhancing resilience to future shocks.