—Mahfuzur Rahman—

Relations between Bangladesh and India are deteriorating rapidly. Following the change in the political situation in Bangladesh since July-August 2024, tensions began to rise between Bangladesh and India. In this regard, intolerant behaviour has been observed on the part of both countries, and that has led to hostility. Then, there were some efforts to turn the page on hostility: first, the meeting of the foreign secretaries of the two countries, then the foreign ministers of the two countries, and most recently the meeting of the heads of government of the two countries on the sidelines of the BIMSTEC summit. It seemed that the ice of hostility was melting, and relations between the two countries would slowly move towards normalisation.

Already, India has given a hint that it wants to see an elected government in Bangladesh. Not bad. Interpreting this hint, it could be assumed that India may want to discuss bilateral relations with the government that will be formed after the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh. Meanwhile, India has always wished the well-being of the people of Bangladesh. Therefore, despite the hostility between the two countries, a ray of light was visible along the way.

One of the demands of the July-August movement in Bangladesh was to prosecute the perpetrators who killed the activists and the agitators. The interim government had promised to bring the killers to justice. In one such trial, the International Crimes Tribunal of Bangladesh sentenced the former prime minister Sheikh Hasina and the former home minister Asaduzzaman Kamal to death. The former prime minister is believed to be in political asylum in India. The former home minister is also believed to be in India. Though nobody is sure about his whereabouts, nobody is sure about his status there. Both the Bangladesh and Indian governments may have clearer information.

Under the bilateral agreement, Bangladesh has requested India to extradite the convicted Sheikh Hasina and Kamal, and this has created a cold situation between the two countries. India tried to ignore the issue through diplomatic silence. Meanwhile, as the election time approached in Bangladesh, the issue of the extradition of the convicts was put on the back burner. Due to the announcement of the schedule, the interim government has also gone into a somewhat sleeping mode. The election schedule was announced on the evening of 11 December. On the afternoon of 12 December, Sharif Osman Hadi, a frontline activist of the July-August movement, was shot. It is believed that Hadi’s killers had fled to India. On the evening of 18 December, Hadi lost his battle with death in a hospital in Singapore. Around the same time, a garment worker named Dipu Chandra Das was beaten to death in Bhaluka, Mymensingh. Dipu’s death has nothing to do with Hadi’s death. Police said that Hadi’s killer has been identified, and there is no concrete evidence that he fled to India. But Hadi’s supporters in Bangladesh continue to believe that India was behind Hadi’s murder. On the other hand, some in India continue to believe that Dipu was killed in Bangladesh simply because he was a Hindu. Although the police in Bangladesh have arrested those involved in Dipu’s murder, and the police themselves have stated that there is no evidence that Dipu made any derogatory remarks about religion.

Therefore, there is no logical reason for any anti-India or anti-Bangladesh situation to arise in either country, Bangladesh or India, due to these two incidents. However, there has never been a shortage of people in Bangladesh or India who respect reason. As a result, just as some of the rising political leaders in Bangladesh have made anti-India statements in their speeches and attacked the residence of the Indian Assistant High Commissioner in Chittagong, in India too, some extremist organisations have protested in front of the residence of the Bangladesh High Commissioner.

These initiated a series of provocative actions. India has undermined the protest in front of the Bangladesh High Commissioner’s residence and said it was not anything to take cognisance of. But the statement has not stopped there and has called for justice for Dipu’s murder and has called on the Bangladesh government to ensure that such murders do not happen again. I think dragging up Dipu’s murder in this statement is a stage of provocation. Bangladesh has joined in this provocation. Bangladesh’s foreign affairs advisor rejected India’s statement. And he went one step further and said that if necessary, he would reduce diplomatic representation in India. Due to this second provocation, many cities in India where Bangladesh has consular representation have faced protests. As a result, Bangladesh stopped visa services in India. India also stopped visa services in Bangladesh.

Shakespeare wrote a comedy titled Much Ado About Nothing. If we knew what we were losing by opposing each other, we would understand why Shakespeare wrote such a comedy. It is like shooting ourselves in the foot. Burn not thy fingers to snuff another man’s candle. In diplomacy, we are standing at a place where we can achieve everything, but we are choosing the exact opposite. It was in this India that a leader like I.K. Gujral emphasised unilateral goodwill, non-interference, and mutual respect for the sovereignty of neighbouring countries, aiming to build trust and cooperation by India giving more than it receives and fostering a peaceful, prosperous region through peaceful dispute resolution and shared territory. Following the Gujral Doctrine, the current Prime Minister of India himself announced the Neighbours First policy. But probably forgotten that the Gujral Doctrine mentioned the word unilateral. There was no consideration of where and how much of the government of one’s choice was in the neighbouring country. As a result, India remained large in size and scope but could not become great.

If there is a normalisation of relationships between Bangladesh and India, the balance of benefits will naturally be heavy towards India. Because India naturally enjoys greater leverage. But if India tries to impose its political influence, will, and reluctance on its neighbour; if it tries to protect its market with non-tariff barriers; if it shows a hostile attitude at the border; if it tightens its visa policy; if it adopts a monkey-pie policy when it comes to sharing common resources, then bilateral relations will not remain normal, and India will also lose its inherent place of hegemony.

It cannot be denied that after the July-August movement, anti-India sentiment has intensified in Bangladesh. Not only in Bangladesh, but anti-India sentiment exists in other South Asian countries as well. Along with this, there are also many people who think that just as there is a shared legacy in the entire South Asia regarding history and heritage, the South Asian countries can also be partners in the future progress.

Elections are going to be held in Bangladesh in a month and a half. The elections will instil democracy in the country. This is a big opportunity for India. Cooperation in establishing democracy in Bangladesh means creating an effective partner in South Asia. A partner who can provide security to India, provide strategic advantages, and also provide economic prosperity. The geographical importance of South Asia is increasing in regional and international politics. In the emerging equation, both countries will benefit from good Bangladesh-India relations, but India’s weight will not be less than that of Bangladesh. Who does not want to enjoy that part of the equation!

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The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador