—Mahfuzur Rahman—

The 13th National Assembly elections and the formation of a new government have brought apparent social stability to Bangladesh. As I had assumed, this election has created a win-win situation for all concerned. However, nothing is permanent in politics. Therefore, it is a question and a matter of concern whether the present socio-political stability will be sustained for the long term and whether a calm environment will prevail in our society. It is equally important to consider whether this election sends any message about the future of Bangladesh as a whole.

The deposed Awami League was not given a chance to participate in the elections. In political terms, the Awami League generally represents the centre-left in Bangladesh. Many people have questions about what the centre-left did in this election. Who did they vote for? Did the BNP get their votes? Did the Jamaat alliance get their votes? Or were they spectators in this election?

Based on statistics, it will likely be challenging to find a definitive answer to these questions. If all the voters had belonged to the BNP and Jamaat camp, then who voted ‘no’ in the referendum?

In the 2008 election, 87 per cent of the votes were cast. In 2026, it came down to 60 per cent. Do 27 per cent of votes belong to the Awami League? In general, it seems that considering local politics, the voters sympathetic to the Awami League may have gone to the polling stations here and there and voted either for the BNP or for the Jamaat alliance. Most of them may have voted ‘No’ in the referendum. The ‘no’ vote was 31 per cent. But this entire portion cannot be the Awami League voters. Because even though the BNP signed the July Charter and its leaders publicly called for a ‘Yes’ vote in the referendum, voters are fairly aware that the BNP has objections to many points of the constitutional reform proposal; this proposal has been cleverly and hastily imposed on the BNP and other political parties, and once elected, the BNP will not follow the constitutional reform proposal in its entirety. After the election, the BNP is indeed walking on that speculation. As a result, the BNP’s share of the ‘No’ vote is not small.

If we cannot conclude any analogy from the above statistics, let us look at another perspective. Although the Jamaat-led alliance won only 25-26 per cent of the seats, it won 41 per cent of the votes. Outside the Jamaat alliance, the Islamic Movement of Bangladesh won 3 per cent of the popular votes. In political philosophy, almost all of them are on the extreme right. It means that a significant portion of the voters have taken a position in favour of the extreme right Islamic parties. In any previous elections, their position was about half. Therefore, it is obvious that their support has doubled in the last 15 to 20 years. Whatever the election results, no matter how far away the Awami League was from this election, the fact is clear that there has been a significant rise in right-wing extremism in Bangladeshi politics. If someone thinks that this is the main trend of this election or that this is the main message, I think there are adequate reasons to worry about it.

A new government has been formed. Gradually, the government is voicing its policies. However, it is easy to imagine that this government will face challenges from right-wing extremism in the near future. What can this centre-right government do in this situation? The only answer to this is good governance.

We all know that good governance is very easy to talk about but very difficult to pursue. Although there have been some spats of good governance in Bangladesh in the past 55 years, no government has come that can be given a pass mark in terms of good governance. Unfortunately, despite the full commitment of this government to good governance, it will face additional challenges for various reasons.

Firstly, the new cabinet is practically an inexperienced cabinet. Even its leadership has not yet proven to be able and prudent. Secondly, there are strong opposition parties in and outside the parliament, which are organised and at the same time remarkably popular. Thirdly, the defunct Awami League will make serious efforts to return to politics.

The government has three major challenges outside of politics. First, reducing social unrest and maintaining law and order. Many of those who were active in the deterioration of the law and order during the one and a half years of the interim government have now been elected to the parliament. The second challenge is to accelerate the economy. Although the economy had a dynamism during the Awami League’s rule, there was erratic and horrendous corruption. The interim government has slowed down the economy while trying to reduce ill practices. In addition, the interim government spent unlimited money on unproductive sectors in an unaccountable manner, the cost of which will have to be paid by the new government. Inflation increased in the country, and so did unemployment. The investment situation has deteriorated, there has been no dynamism in the banking sector, and trust in the market has not returned. In such a situation, mobilising the economy on the right track is indeed a huge challenge. And the third challenge is to rebuild appropriate foreign relations. During the Awami League’s regime, Bangladesh chose a distinct path. That path had invited a lot of criticism within the country. Although it created proximity with India and a functional balance with Europe, the Middle East and China, unfortunately, it created subtle hostility between Bangladesh and the United States. The interim government has chosen a cloudy path to resolve the hostility with the United States, the price of which the new government may have to pay. At the same time, by creating extreme hostility with India, the interim government has kept the new government one step behind. Unfortunately, in all circumstances, the development of relations with Myanmar has been neglected. I fear that this negligence is making Bangladesh suffer dearly. The change in geopolitics that we are witnessing in a short time, Bangladesh has no way of ignoring the change. As a result, Bangladesh will have to walk a subtle but only path like Pulsirat. The more it deviates from this, the more Bangladesh will be in danger.

SO, WHERE IS THE POSSIBILITY?

The possibility is in good governance. The new government will have to prove its willingness to govern well. The amount of support that the BNP has gained in the elections must be increased through good governance. The opposition must be kept at the discussion table for conducting dialogue on every national issue and kept on board on important policy decisions. Parliament should be revitalised. If the government can ensure public support behind it, it can be easier to deal with all the above crises. Opportunities are created while dealing with the crises appropriately.

——————————————————

The writer is a former Bangladeshi Ambassador