–––Maruf Hasan Rumi–––

At present, 11 districts in Bangladesh are grappling with a dire situation caused by severe flooding. This crisis has not only affected over 5 million people but also forced more than 1 million to leave their homes. The floods have wreaked havoc on crops, cattle, and fisheries, causing huge losses. As governments and various organisations rush to provide relief, food supplies, medical care, and temporary shelters, the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated.

Due to recent floods in Bangladesh, the necessity of India-Bangladesh cooperation, particularly in water management, has been underscored. Although Bangladesh has received some aid from India during natural calamities, the present flood situation has stirred discussions about the long-standing Teesta water-sharing arrangement between the two countries.

Teesta river is vital for both countries, particularly during flooding and drought. Since seasonal floods make an organised approach to water management even more essential, Bangladesh has been pushing for a fair share of the Teesta waters. Areas like West Bengal also depend on Teesta’s water. So, India still needs to figure out how to strike a balance.

Because of the realities that surfaced in the aftermath of the recent floods, we can see a silver lining. The pressure on both parties to finalise the Teesta treaty has intensified, potentially paving the way for enhanced cooperation in disaster response and flood management. Despite the significant influence of internal political variables on the pace and success of such conversations, there is still hope for both the nations to continue dialogue focusing on the mutual benefits.

Negotiations regarding the Teesta treaty with India have been going on for years and have not been definitively agreed upon. Teesta river is a critical water source for northern Bangladesh, and the recent floods have underscored the importance of water-sharing agreements. However, the treaty’s future is still hanging in the balance due to the political complexities and historical delays.

Continued dialogues between Bangladesh and India are necessary to address these water sharing challenges, particularly in the context of climate-related impacts such as flooding. Diplomatic failure between India and Bangladesh regarding the Teesta water-sharing agreement could result in a variety of repercussions, including a potential impact on water security, agricultural productivity, and regional relations.

Strain on bilateral relations: The robust India-Bangladesh relationship could face setbacks if the Teesta issue is not resolved, resulting in tensions in other areas such as trade, security, and cross-border cooperation. While both countries enjoy close ties, unresolved water disputes could impede future diplomatic and economic collaborations, raising concerns about the broader implications of a failed Teesta treaty.

Agricultural and economic impact in Bangladesh: Teesta river is a critical source of irrigation for Bangladesh, particularly in the northern regions, where farmers depend on it to cultivate rice and other crops. In the absence of an equitable water-sharing agreement, Bangladesh could face significant water shortages during the dry season, which would have a detrimental effect on the agricultural sector and rural livelihoods, leading to an increase in food insecurity and economic duress.

Regional political tensions: In South Asia, water-sharing disputes are sensitive issues. If the Teesta treaty remains unresolved, it may exacerbate political tensions, particularly within West Bengal (India), which also relies on the Teesta waters. Negotiation process could get complicated because of domestic politics in both countries, particularly if local leaders prioritise regional interests over national or bilateral cooperation.

Flood management challenges: The absence of coordinated water management system may intensify flooding issues, like the recent catastrophic floods in Bangladesh. Moreover, inadequate coordination regarding river flow control may lead to more frequent and severe flooding, exacerbating the already complex situation.

Rise of anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh: A prolonged delay or outright failure to reach a water-sharing deal may exacerbate anti-Indian sentiment in Bangladesh. Certain factions may interpret India’s reluctance as a disregard to Bangladesh’s requirements, potentially fueling political discontent and nationalist movements within the country.

Geopolitical shifts: In response to a diplomatic failure on this issue, Bangladesh may pursue more intensive relationships with other regional actors, like China, which has expressed interest in providing infrastructure support and investment. This shift could impact the regional balance of power and diminish India’s influence in South Asia.

Despite these challenges, India and Bangladesh have maintained robust bilateral relations, characterised by collaboration in various sectors, such as trade, security, and cultural exchange. Therefore, India will likely propose a more effective policy solution as far as the Teesta issue is concerned. An unresolved Teesta water-sharing agreement could increase public frustration and damage diplomatic relations. A fair and mutually respectful treaty could prevent such issues and help to maintain regional stability.

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The writer is Lecturer, Department of Public Administration, University of Dhaka